Is Obama's curtain call near?

Since February, Democratic Party members have been calling for Senator Hillary Clinton to bow out of the presidential race. After winning the Pennsylvania primary with 54% of the vote, it looks as if the call to drop out is now being spun onto rival Barack Obama.

After losing by 11 points to Clinton in last week’s primary, blogger Chris Wilson of Slate.com’s Trailhead says that if Obama is “serious about representing a new kind of politics, now is the time for him to prove it” by dropping out. Wilson believes Clinton will lose against McCain and Obama’s quiet fold will help him win in 2012.

Others believe there are other reasons why Obama should drop out of the race besides saving face for Presidential Campaign Version 2.0.

Adam Nagourney of the New York Times says that Obama doesn’t have what it takes to gain the “key bloc votes.” The key blocs are the white working-class and senior voters. Without those voters, Obama stands the chance of not winning in working-class states like Pennsylvania and Ohio during the general election in November.

The fact he cannot win key bloc votes worries superdelegates. According to an Associated Press report, only a third of the superdelegates have yet to make up their mind. Clinton currently leads in the superdelegate count.

Christopher Beam of Trailhead says another reason exists for why Obama should drop out of the race: the party believes that “Clinton voters will ditch Obama for McCain.”

The Associate Press reported on Tuesday that “Obama backers who don't like Clinton say they would vote for Republican candidate John McCain over her by a two-to-one margin,” while “Clinton backers with unfavorable views of Obama say they would vote for McCain over him by nearly three-to-one.”

A Clinton supporter, Elizabeth Luna, 22, of Houston, Texas says that she will never support Obama if he wins the candidacy.

“He doesn’t have enough experience and his plans are not very clear for the future,” she says.

While Obama’s support decreases, Clinton’s is increasing. On Monday a new Associated Press-Ipsos poll announced that Clinton has gained in the national polls against Obama and they are once again at a virtual tie.

Polls measuring how each Democrat would fair when running against Republican candidate John McCain in November have also changed. As of Monday, Clinton leads McCain by nine percent with 50% compared to his 41%. Obama and McCain are about even in the poll with percentage points of 46 and 44 respectively.

Three weeks ago, both Democratic candidates were at a virtual tie with the senator from Arizona.

The reason for Clinton’s gain is due to an increase of support in almost every bloc of voters, including independents, seniors and Catholics.

The Associated Press says that, when pitted against McCain, Clinton leads with independents with 50% in her favour compared to 34% in his favour. She also leads with seniors with 51% to 39% and with Catholics who are “an important swing voting group in a general election.” Her lead with Southern states, families who make $25,000 a year and voters under the age of 30 is also on the rise.

When pitted against McCain, Obama trails him with the senior vote. However he leads McCain with voters under the age of 30 and has a slight marginal lead in this bloc over Clinton.

Obama may continue to blunder and lose support in the next few weeks thanks to a degrading comment about working class voters being bitter and because of the ever-lasting interest in the controversy caused by mentor Rev. Jeremiah Wright back in March.

His chances of winning back support before voters in Indiana and North Carolina go to the polls on 6 May are further ruined thanks to his docile and tactless performance last Sunday in an interview on radical right-wing Fox News channel.

Clinton supporters, I say to you: enter a premature cheer of excitement here.

Author's note: This is a few days old--I wrote this for class. I hope to write something about the new developments in Obama's attempt to gain back his ground this weekend.